:Product: 0314RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Mar 14 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 073 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Mar 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1054 (N14E01) produced two C-class flares. The C-class
event at 13/2349Z was a long duration C1.5 SF flare associated with
a partial halo CME and a sympathetic disappearing filament. Region
1054 has shown little growth and still magnetically classified as a
Beta-Gamma. No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels for the next three days (15-17 March).
C-flares are likely from Region 1054.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels for the past 24
hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next two days
(15-16 March) due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream and
a solar sector boundary crossing. Geomagnetic activity is expected
to decrease to quiet levels on day three (17 March).
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Mar 089
Predicted   15 Mar-17 Mar  089/090/091
90 Day Mean        14 Mar 082
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Mar  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Mar  005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar  007/007-007/007-005/007
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/10
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/10
Minor storm           15/15/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01